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PD Moderator	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 12:32:36 PM Ignore PD Report Abuse With the peak of hurricane season coming quickly, many continue to ask why hurricane season plays an increasing role in gasoline prices during these months. The answer isn't as simple as it sounds for many. The short answer is that hurricanes have hit oil infrastructure hard the past few years since the record setting year of 2005. Hurricanes have tracked towards the Gulf, home to a significant portion of infrastructure. Looking at hurricanes from the early 2000's, I see a few storms did track into the Gulf, but since 2005, the number of strong storms in the Gulf has risen. In 2000, just one tropical storm hit the heart of oil infrastructure. In 2001, it was the same- just one tropical storm. In 2002, it was one hurricane and two... Visit GasBuddy Blog for full article

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Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 12:32:36 PM

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With the peak of hurricane season coming quickly, many continue to ask why hurricane season plays an increasing role in gasoline prices during these months. The answer isn't as simple as it sounds for many. The short answer is that hurricanes have hit oil infrastructure hard the past few years since the record setting year of 2005. Hurricanes have tracked towards the Gulf, home to a significant portion of infrastructure.

Looking at hurricanes from the early 2000's, I see a few storms did track into the Gulf, but since 2005, the number of strong storms in the Gulf has risen. In 2000, just one tropical storm hit the heart of oil infrastructure. In 2001, it was the same- just one tropical storm. In 2002, it was one hurricane and two...

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OHMS Champion Author Orange County Posts:13,866 Points:1,718,545 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Aug 12, 2010 12:47:24 PM Ignore OHMS Report Abuse you go predictors; good luck; better to change your plan than to not have a plan. I love this new global cooling; the OC in CA is up to 68º by 11 am; way to go weathermen!!
wxman08 Champion Author Vermont Posts:1,917 Points:401,470 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Aug 12, 2010 8:33:39 AM Ignore wxman08 Report Abuse "actually Grey used to be pretty darn close." His group has been doing these kind of seasonal hurricane forecasts for the longest, but I still have observed that many of all of the various seasonal hurricane predictions are way off from reality. I just don't think that as much weight should be given to these type of seasonal weather forecasts.
majjad Champion Author Dallas Posts:6,465 Points:1,440,690 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Aug 12, 2010 7:30:40 AM Ignore majjad Report Abuse 10 years is a ridiculously small sample. I don't know who this idiot is, but he obviously knows nothing about statitical analysis.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,828 Points:1,637,220 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 9:18:48 PM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse wxman: actually Grey used to be pretty darn close.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,828 Points:1,637,220 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 9:17:54 PM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse funny how everyone whines about the government having too much hold over their lives and then they complain that there's not enough regulation of specutraitors... [Edited by: honda0105 at 8/11/2010 10:22:26 PM EST]
kelsielee Champion Author Atlanta Posts:3,389 Points:672,025 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 4:07:50 PM Ignore kelsielee Report Abuse I dread hearing the predictions of a terrible hurricane season this year. I remember how high prices rose in 2008 when the Gulf had the hurricanes in September Stations seem to react quickly to possible shortages due to refinery disruptions - and we pay the bill as prices go very high very fast.
wxman08 Champion Author Vermont Posts:1,917 Points:401,470 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 3:25:24 PM Ignore wxman08 Report Abuse "Huricane season is impacting gas prices because big oil uses it as an excuse to jack up prices and the media plays into it by hyping any indication of a potential storm." Well said "VTROCK"! ------------------------ "Hurricanes and gas prices- both unpredictable!" Hurricane aren't "unpredictable" "1cheapgasin". Their track is usually pretty easy to tell ahead of time, but their intensity is very difficult to forecast ahead of time. -------------------------------- "They already raise prices nation wide for putting fuel additives in the gas sold in the north for winter." Actually, it's summertime fuel blends that add more to the cost of gasoline production "TIGERPAW46".
wxman08 Champion Author Vermont Posts:1,917 Points:401,470 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 3:17:21 PM Ignore wxman08 Report Abuse The thing is...these hurricane seasonal forecasts aren't worth the paper that they are printed on. I admire those that are trying to push the envelope of what is possible in forecasting given the current state of the science of meteorology, but there is WAY too much stock put into these seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Nicoalbum Champion Author Ottawa Posts:6,167 Points:1,216,725 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 9:32:27 AM Ignore Nicoalbum Report Abuse Any other kind of incertainty will influence the oil prices.
torn8owx Champion Author Philadelphia Posts:2,313 Points:577,515 Joined:Feb 2010	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 6:52:59 AM Ignore torn8owx Report Abuse The vulnerabilty is the refining capacity of the Gulf region makes up for the refining deficiencies in other regions of the country (i.e., it's an exporter of gas, diesel, etc...). Shut down the system for a few days & watch the ripple effects. This is what people in the market are speculating on
alterman156 Champion Author New York Posts:7,625 Points:1,584,250 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 3:53:42 AM Ignore alterman156 Report Abuse Two years ago, a tropical storm had an effect on gas prices though it was short lived.
DellDude2 Champion Author Nashville Posts:9,571 Points:2,149,460 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 2:45:43 AM Ignore DellDude2 Report Abuse Follow the money trail... it will make you dizzy.
comprof Champion Author Houston Posts:7,009 Points:1,384,450 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 12:16:31 AM Ignore comprof Report Abuse The storms did a whole lot more damage to my pocket book because of the outrageously ridiculous increase in my insurance premiums. I could buy all the gasoline I will use for the rest of my life if I had my insurance premiums back to where they were before Katrina, Rita, and Ike hit the LA and TX coasts.
HEBster Champion Author Kentucky Posts:8,927 Points:2,400,855 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 12:01:07 AM Ignore HEBster Report Abuse Just wait till the first one comes through...
NOTSOGRN Champion Author Michigan Posts:2,077 Points:1,535,210 Joined:Dec 2007	Message Posted: Aug 11, 2010 12:00:15 AM Ignore NOTSOGRN Report Abuse WHY wait for a storm when you can raise prices any way?
bigreddwg Champion Author Tampa Posts:5,002 Points:1,050,605 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:59:25 PM Ignore bigreddwg Report Abuse SPECULATION ON OIL FUTURES AND JUST PLAIN OLD GREED IS THE CAUSE OF ALL THESE PANIC SITUATIONS. NO OIL COMPANY HAS EVER LOST ENOUGH IN THE SHORT TIME THAT A HURRICANE THREATENS OR HITS AN OIL PLATFORM/REFINERY TO PERMIT THIS TO HAPPEN!! SHAME ON THEM ALL!!
VTROCK Champion Author Detroit Posts:2,596 Points:992,760 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:58:33 PM Ignore VTROCK Report Abuse Huricane season is impacting gas prices because big oil uses it as an excuse to jack up prices and the media plays into it by hyping any indication of a potential storm.
Toppers Champion Author Atlanta Posts:9,152 Points:2,498,395 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:58:18 PM Ignore Toppers Report Abuse Then let's get things buttoned up in the gulf...
Rt118E Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:9,631 Points:1,395,970 Joined:Jun 2009	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:45:51 PM Ignore Rt118E Report Abuse The Big Oil uses these storm to increase prices because of lower production.
bobdec Champion Author Miami Posts:9,104 Points:1,797,520 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:44:04 PM Ignore bobdec Report Abuse No real reason, except speculation
Jeff4U Champion Author Atlanta Posts:8,895 Points:1,879,930 Joined:Nov 2004	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:42:13 PM Ignore Jeff4U Report Abuse U.S. inventories are the highest in over 10 years. If refineries went off-line for a week, there still would be no threat. "Hurricane" is simply a scare tactic, an excuse, and an attempt used by speculators to manipulate prices and feed their greed. [Edited by: Jeff4U at 8/11/2010 12:43:32 EST]
CPGas1815 Champion Author Michigan Posts:6,034 Points:1,101,695 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:40:25 PM Ignore CPGas1815 Report Abuse Our planet is warming and the mid-latitudes are warming even faster than the tropical latitudes. I reside just north of the 45th latitude. Winters had once dumped feet of snow accompanied by bone chilling temperatures. But during the past few years the region set record lows for snowfall and smashed the record average winter temperature by more than 6 degrees. But in the the tropics, an entirely different set of problems related to climatology have created the possibility for major Hurricanes. The storms to come will suck up the increased warmth and intensify the severity of the storms. Those in the Gulf and those along the eastern seaboard are certainly in peril, and all gasoline consumers are likely to experience inflated gas prices later this summer. I only wish there were effective regulations established to prevent the oil industry from gouging our wallets of every penny that they will steal especially when a natural disaster caused by a weather phenomenon occurs.
REKEY Champion Author South Carolina Posts:8,718 Points:1,726,120 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:36:13 PM Ignore REKEY Report Abuse And when the winds blow really hard in Siberia....
Bleeder Champion Author Virginia Posts:8,038 Points:1,718,475 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:35:48 PM Ignore Bleeder Report Abuse It always has. I don't see much of an increase since it always affected prices.
SBlouch Champion Author San Antonio Posts:8,836 Points:1,885,285 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:29:06 PM Ignore SBlouch Report Abuse There is always an excuse for the raising of the gas prices. When we do not have the threat of hurricanes, it is something else. Its part of the price game played every day.
genef01 Champion Author Nashville Posts:2,611 Points:834,680 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:28:11 PM Ignore genef01 Report Abuse Any excuse is enough for them.
1cheapgasin Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:5,699 Points:1,237,440 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:27:06 PM Ignore 1cheapgasin Report Abuse Hurricanes and gas prices- both unpredictable!!!!!!
hwnguy Champion Author Honolulu Posts:3,846 Points:1,406,485 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:23:35 PM Ignore hwnguy Report Abuse Just more speculators
CobraLeader Champion Author New Jersey Posts:267,902 Points:1,200,750 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:21:47 PM Ignore CobraLeader Report Abuse ... If there are no Gulf storms, why does the price increase anyway? ...
Chris46 Champion Author Dayton Posts:23,954 Points:2,107,475 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:20:25 PM Ignore Chris46 Report Abuse I agree with TigerPaw. Well said.
djtdi Champion Author San Jose Posts:2,840 Points:724,700 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:19:58 PM Ignore djtdi Report Abuse Why beat a dead horse. This kind a price manipulation is in the news every other day if not daily.
hank1326 Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:9,045 Points:1,761,020 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:18:11 PM Ignore hank1326 Report Abuse Just another excuse to raise the pump prices.
tedjm1 Champion Author New York Posts:5,609 Points:800,300 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:18:02 PM Ignore tedjm1 Report Abuse Water is warmer.
nemoFL Champion Author Florida Posts:8,936 Points:1,637,000 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:17:49 PM Ignore nemoFL Report Abuse any excuse
Jeff4U Champion Author Atlanta Posts:8,895 Points:1,879,930 Joined:Nov 2004	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:16:47 PM Ignore Jeff4U Report Abuse The 10 Costliest U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980: (if this interests you) 1.Hurricane Katrina-2005 1833 deaths cost $84,645,000,000 2.Midwest/Eastern U.S. Drought-1988 7,500 deaths cost $71,200,000,000 3.Midwest/Eastern U.S. Drought-1980 10,000 deaths cost $55,400,000,000 4.Hurricane Andrew-1992 26 deaths cost $48,058,000,000 5.Midwest Flooding-1993 48 deaths cost $30,200,000,000 6.Hurricane Wilma-2005 22 deaths cost $21,527,000,000 7.Hurricane Ike-2008 54 deaths cost $18,000,000,000 8.Hurricane Charley-2004 15 deaths cost $16,322,000,000 9.Midwest Floods-2008 24 deaths cost $15,000,000,000 10.Hurricane Ivan-2004 26 deaths cost $13,000,000,000
LoneGuy Champion Author Lansing Posts:8,615 Points:2,344,720 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:10:03 PM Ignore LoneGuy Report Abuse Is it true that in the last 10 years world temps have actually cooled?
TBONE3 Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:8,881 Points:2,004,125 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:09:09 PM Ignore TBONE3 Report Abuse Nothing new here, been doing it for years.
JohnofGB Champion Author Flint Posts:5,561 Points:1,123,895 Joined:Feb 2010	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:07:55 PM Ignore JohnofGB Report Abuse Its done that for years.
TIGERPAW46 Champion Author Florida Posts:7,241 Points:1,379,620 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:06:58 PM Ignore TIGERPAW46 Report Abuse First) the USA has peak stores of oil & gas at the ideal time to have extra supplies incase there was reduction in output from storm damage. Therefore we could withstand a small amount of decrease output for a short period without shortages. Secondly) production has been reduced anyway for greater than a year compared to past peaks from many areas. So, a reduction in some areas might be met by increase production from another area. 3) Prices should not be allowed to increase solely because there might be some damage if a storm hits. The oil companies made enough profit when oil prices were over $100/Brl. to pad their coffers for disasters. Also they make enough profit at $80/brl to maintain and do further exploration, plus still put some in reserves. This is simply gouging when people need to refill tanks before a storm for evacuation; which is Illegal in Fl at least. The oil Companies drilling or otherwise should be subject to the same laws as the filling stations. If they can't cover their own losses, then they should have insurance for damages like other companies & people have to do. At the prices they charge they should be making sufficient money year around without charging more seasonally. The production doesn't get more expensive just because the weather changes unless maybe in Frozen areas due to Ice problems. They already raise prices nation wide for putting fuel additives in the gas sold in the north for winter. [Edited by: TIGERPAW46 at 8/11/2010 12:10:02 AM EST]
Bigwaynef Champion Author South Carolina Posts:11,674 Points:2,108,435 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:04:43 PM Ignore Bigwaynef Report Abuse Anytime the wind blows gas goes up and during hurricanes even higher...
Bonito Champion Author Dayton Posts:15,916 Points:3,035,595 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:04:32 PM Ignore Bonito Report Abuse That is all crap for the rich to get richer and make more super profits! Greed controls gas prices! Get off OIL now!
Rageagainsttm Champion Author Tampa Posts:8,422 Points:1,927,885 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:04:15 PM Ignore Rageagainsttm Report Abuse They have not caused any problems this year.
Blue_Cruzer Champion Author Lexington Posts:7,660 Points:1,697,285 Joined:Mar 2007	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 11:03:30 PM Ignore Blue_Cruzer Report Abuse Just another excuse.
Rageagainsttm Champion Author Tampa Posts:8,422 Points:1,927,885 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:57:11 PM Ignore Rageagainsttm Report Abuse They have caused any problems so far this year.
mvosevich Champion Author St. Louis Posts:5,489 Points:1,115,410 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:50:51 PM Ignore mvosevich Report Abuse They have been drilling in the gulf for decades, and hurricanes have been around since Moses. Big oil is the ONLY thing that affects pricing.
bigreddwg Champion Author Tampa Posts:5,002 Points:1,050,605 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:50:25 PM Ignore bigreddwg Report Abuse sadly, besides that speculation and greed by other investors have lead to these fluctuations, another human error is increasingly becoming the catalyst for more price increases - that being the deterioration of older drilling platforms. while newer ones are being built better and for more turbulent seas, the older ones are rusting from poor maintainence and repeated abuse by the stronger wave actions. as a result, with more storms and powerful ones at that, it only a matter of time before disasters cause them to sink thus raising prices. someone told me there are over 25000 wells/platforms that are 20 or more years old - accidents waiting to happen!!!
Buddy2264 Champion Author Tampa Posts:11,797 Points:2,387,670 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:43:38 PM Ignore Buddy2264 Report Abuse I guess it is because of the drilling platforms. I wonder how once in production do they get the oil to the surface and get it to the refineries? Conservation keeps your money in your pocket.
Jeeputtputt Champion Author Ohio Posts:3,002 Points:677,465 Joined:Aug 2009	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:38:27 PM Ignore Jeeputtputt Report Abuse WE had hurricanes in 1958 when I sold gas for $0.179 / gallon, same season.
30mpg80 Champion Author Lexington Posts:10,265 Points:1,514,580 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:38:07 PM Ignore 30mpg80 Report Abuse They can increase prices anytime, and do.
Number43 Champion Author Lexington Posts:8,849 Points:1,665,870 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Aug 10, 2010 10:37:18 PM Ignore Number43 Report Abuse The crooks in charge of oil prices use any excuse to raise oil prices.They are suckering in all sorts of small investors who will lose their savings when the money runs out. The economy is not roaring back to life as these people were led to believe and soon the oversupply of oil with exceed the ability to store it. What happens when that bubble pops. Many greedy investors will be wiped out. The smart money will be long gone. I hope they lose it all.