GasBuddy Blog

Message Forum - Read Message

Category: Science news > Topics	Add to favorite topics Post New Topic

Author	Topic: Alaska (toll of changing climate)	Post a Reply Back to Topics

JOHNNY95206 Champion Author Stockton Posts:3,107 Points:356,105 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Jan 27, 2010 12:25:13 PM Ignore JOHNNY95206 Report Abuse Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States. Its annual average temperature has increased 3.4°F, while winters have warmed by 6.3°F. The higher temperatures are already causing earlier spring snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, and permafrost warming. The observed changes are consistent with climate model projections of greater warming over Alaska, especially in winter, as compared to the rest of the country. Climate models also project increases in precipitation over Alaska. Simultaneous increases in evaporation due to higher air temperatures, however, are expected to lead to drier conditions overall, with reduced soil moisture. Average annual temperatures are projected to rise between 5 and 13°F by late this century, with lower emissions scenarios yielding increases at the lower end of this range and higher emissions yielding increases near the high end of the range. United States Global Change Research Program

JOHNNY95206

Champion Author
Stockton

Posts:3,107
Points:356,105
Joined:May 2008

Message Posted: Jan 27, 2010 12:25:13 PM

Ignore JOHNNY95206 Report Abuse

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States. Its annual average temperature has increased 3.4°F, while winters have warmed by 6.3°F. The higher temperatures are already causing earlier spring snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, and permafrost warming. The observed changes are consistent with climate model projections of greater warming over Alaska, especially in winter, as compared to the rest of the country. Climate models also project increases in precipitation over Alaska. Simultaneous increases in evaporation due to higher air temperatures, however, are expected to lead to drier conditions overall, with reduced soil moisture. Average annual temperatures are projected to rise between 5 and 13°F by late this century, with lower emissions scenarios yielding increases at the lower end of this range and higher emissions yielding increases near the high end of the range.

United States Global Change Research Program

REPLIES (newest first)Ignore Short Messages

nayla2011 All-Star Author Toronto Posts:587 Points:13,365 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Jul 2, 2011 12:29:32 AM Ignore nayla2011 Report Abuse Some people have no sense of cause and effect. There are some who see that the world is round and what effects one place will effect others. Then there are the others who laugh nervously, not fully understanding, then say something so illiterate it's insulting to all your insightful imformation.
catspaw Champion Author Toronto Posts:29,929 Points:3,149,735 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2011 10:17:16 PM Ignore catspaw Report Abuse gouged, you should know by now that oilpan and several of his other buddies here just follow the party line when it comes to some subjects, particularly anything scientific. They don't think for themselves but just repeat what their talking heads (who are even less scientific) have to say. I for one have been up in the permafrost area when I used to work for the Royal Ontario Museum, and I've also been to Maine and there is absolutely no comparison between the two. The areas oilpan is talking about get comparitively dry in the summer, and the ground hardens up. There's a lot of rock and bedrock, and tall trees to absorb the excess water and help knit the ground together. roads can be paved and if too far out in the bush, gravel and dirt roads are passable most of the year unless the snow gets too deep. The permafrost areas by contrast is mush in the summer. Telephone poles can't be put in because the ground is too soft in the spring, almost like quicksand and the poles just fall over. So they build big metal coffers and fill them with rock and plant the poles in those, not in the ground. The biggest trees are only waist high, if they exist at all, way too small to hold the ground together. Roads can't even be graveled, because it just sinks into the muck. The miners would think oilpan's pickup trucks with "heavy equipment" were Dinky toys to amuse the kids. The truckes with the northern mining equipment are so heavy they wouldn't be allowed to move on paved roads in most of the country, they aren't the sort of thing he saw with logging equipment at all.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2011 9:22:31 AM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse sea level to rise on west coast
RegularGasUser All-Star Author Albany Posts:994 Points:800,300 Joined:Sep 2010	Message Posted: May 5, 2011 8:31:17 AM Ignore RegularGasUser Report Abuse Climate has been changing since the beginning of time. Some day, if there are any people left on earth, they might be going to Alaska to lay out under the sun and the palm and coconut trees sucking on the last margarita before the sun burns itself out.....
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 23, 2011 8:39:32 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse oipan..get serious.. Im not a scientist, and most certainly neither are you. My personal thoughts are based on personal contact with a number of scientists and in vast reading of scientific material. I go to the sources, people who DO know, people who are experienced and knowledgeable, people whose work is peer reviewed, people who are recognized experts...worldwide. questioning authority??? what drugs are you on.??? .this is not 'authority' this is scientific research, much of it done by and for private companies, completely unrelated to government,..which you seem to think is one big conspiracy.. and you obviously didnt even read the slightest thing about those MANY scientific studies- by and for the mining industry... Which showed all the research going into the PROBLEMS related to CLIMATE CHANGE and the SHORTER FREEZING season, and the MELTING permafrost.. nobody mines in the winter? Again a clear demonstration of your lack of knowledge.
oilpan4 Champion Author Virginia Posts:12,041 Points:306,600 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Apr 23, 2011 5:13:23 AM Ignore oilpan4 Report Abuse "get the point? This is from less than 15 min search" Hardly, I see you wasted 15 minutes coping and pasting propaganda. You know what would impress me? Try an original thought or idea. At what point did you liberals become so influencable? They say jump and you ask how high, what ever happened to questioning authority? You are starting to sound like a bunch of bible thumpers. "It also shows an obvious lack of knowledge about the north. There are a vast number of mines scattered throughout the north, and the only way to ship equipment in and resources out is when the land and lakes are frozen solid". Making more assumptions again I see. Well I lived in Maine for 4 years and worked out doors a lot. There is no permafrost in maine yet the muddy soft swampy ground would freeze solid allowing people drive pickup trucks and heavy equipment deep out into the woods. Usually for logging. Same thing with the lakes, almost every year they freeze down far enough to drive heavy vehicles on. When the frost does melt in maine no one is complaining. I have never once herd any one say anything to the effect of "gee I wish the winter would last longer". Unless its someone who runs a ski resort. The winter shuts down most mineral exploration in the far north. Who mines through the winter? I looked at the permafrost map. Its no where near maine, its all at least 1000 miles north. There is no way any one is going to believe for a second that the area 1000 miles north of maine or even a few hundred miles north isn't going to freeze enough to drive vehicles on for at least several months. Good job trying to make the melting of the permafrost sound like a dire emergency, but I Dont think any one is going to buy it. Dont expect your new "save the permafrost" battel cry to catch on.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 22, 2011 7:55:48 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse get the point? This is from less than 15 min search There are literally thousands of reputable scientific studies..done NOT for governments, but for corporations and industries.. where the ridiculous conspiracy allegations of funding prostitution could not be thrown about with such careless abandon. A few scientists say AGW is not happening, just as a few scientists said smoking was good for you, just as a few scientists were claiming the earth was flat even as ships were cicumnavigating the globe. just as a few scientists said DDT was 100% safe. and on and on. AUTHOR F. Stuart Chapin III LOCATION/AFFILIATION U Alaska Fairbanks STATUS FUNDING ABSTRACT Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society’s ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectivelynunder new conditions).AUTHOR Igor Holubec, Heather Auld, Sharon Fernandez LOCATION/AFFILIATION Holubec Consulting; Environment Canada ABSTRACT Rising air temperatures across Northern Canada are having a profound impact on performance of existing infrastructure and the design of proposed new infrastructures founded on frozen ground permafrost. Existing ground temperatures at many Northern settlements and resource projects are near or nominally above their design ground temperatures, with the result that additional climate warming may result in the ground below the foundations warming above design values within the service life of the infrastructure. New guidance for design temperatures in permafrost regions is needed that goes beyond the traditional climate Normals that represent the past 30 year period of climate record (e.g. 1971-2000). It is becoming recognized internationally and domestically that new approaches and guidance are needed for temperature Normals, especially for regions with rapid temperatures warming and where values are incorporated into criteria used for the design of infrastructure foundations over their respective service life period.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 22, 2011 7:35:43 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse 4 of 82 AUTHOR D. Brennan, U. Akpan, I. Konuk, A. Zebrowski LOCATION/AFFILIATION Martec Ltd. For Geological Survey of Canada STATUS FUNDING Geological Survey of Canada; Climate Change Action Fund ABSTRACT Northward extension of boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, and reduction of existing discontinuous permafrost zones due to warming pattern, combined with more vigorous hydrological cycle are among anticipated impacts of climate change. Combined with anticipated changes in rainfall patterns, these changes will increase potential for ground movement and slope instability, resulting in increased strain levels threatening the integrity of neighbouring structures such as pipelines. 5 of 82 AUTHOR Ivana Kubat, Ivana, Anne Collins, Bob Gorman, Garry Timco LOCATION/AFFILIATION Canadian Hydraulics Centre, NRC; Enfotec (Gorman) STATUS Ongoing FUNDING Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate, NRCan ABSTRACT Assesses of impact of climate change on likelihood and severity of damage to vessels operating in Arctic waters, and addresses impacts of climate change on pollution prevention regulations governing ship traffic. Includes a survey of studies of climate change impacts on ice conditions. 6 of 82 AUTHOR John E. Udd & Marc C. Bétournay LOCATION/AFFILIATION CANMET STATUS FUNDING CANMET ABSTRACT Thawing of permafrost is ongoing problem of mining in the arctic. Composition of materials and its response to thawing in which mine is being proposed must be accounted for in the design stage in order to ensure mine stability.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 22, 2011 7:24:56 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse 1 (of 82) AUTHOR Hassol, Susan Joy Arctic Climate Impact Assessment LOCATION/AFFILIATION Arctic Council STATUS Ongoing FUNDING Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, International Arctic Science Committee ABSTRACT Impact of climate change on arctic region, not mitigation or adaptation. Climate change impacts particularly intense in Arctic region, resulting in melting of glaciers and sea ice, rising permafrost temperatures, and changes in vegetation patterns. These will have positive and negative effects on local communities and economic activity in region.2 (of 82) 2 of 82 AUTHOR Heather Auld, Don MacIver LOCATION/AFFILIATION Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada STATUS Ongoing FUNDING Environment Canada ABSTRACT As the climate changes, it is likely that risks for infrastructure failure will increase worldwide due to shifting weather patterns and extreme weather conditions becoming more variable and regionally more intense. Existing studies indicate that small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure. Infrastructure has been designed using climatic design values calculated from historical climate data on the assumption that past extremes will represent future conditions. Changes in climate will require changes to these climatic design values, as well as larger societal changes. 3 of 82 AUTHOR Tina Neale, Heather Auld, Livia Bizikova, Joan Klaassen, Don MacIver LOCATION/AFFILIATION Adaptation and Impacts Division, Environment Canada STATUS Ongoing FUNDING Environment Canada ABSTRACT A discussion of climate change impacts relevant to the mining sector, supporting the need to incorporate climate change adaptation in mine operations and the infrastructure life cycle,including the risk management of tailings facilities long after mine closure. [Edited by: gougedQC at 4/22/2011 8:30:39 PM EST]
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 22, 2011 7:17:54 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse ''I ask what is so bad about AGW? The lame answer I get this week is the permafrost will melt and the beach will erode'' It also shows an obvious lack of knowledge about the north. There are a vast number of mines scattered throughout the north, and the only way to ship equipment in and resources out is when the land and lakes are frozen solid. These resource minerals go into everything from computers, to high tech instruments to armour, to automobiles and include nickel, copper, gold, uranium, tungsten, iron, zinc, lead, diamonds, natural gas, and oil. This has become increasingly difficult as the season becomes shorter due to warming and less deep cold. This in turn increases costs for the operation, and market prices for the resource,which in turn means eventually higher prices for consumers on just about everything. ((Immediately below is a section from a comprehensive and wide rangins mining industry study))) 3.4 Impacts on General Infrastructure Many studies describe climate change impacts on regional activities and general infrastructure that will also impact mining operations. These include infrastructure threats from more severe weather and permafrost degradation. Regional operators have already experienced shortened ice road seasons, and there is some evidence from traditional knowledge gathering that significant changes to sea ice, weather events, and wildlife patterns have already begun. The studies report that transportation infrastructure is changing significantly and that reliance on ice roads for resupply is increasingly tenuous. Several articles explore the issue of improved ocean access, though the Bathurst Inlet project is the most well-developed example (9, 43). The Associated Press 04/20/11 - 02:50 PM EDT RANDOLPH E. SCHMID WASHINGTON (AP) â€” An international research team is in the land of snow and ice, in search of soot. Though the Arctic is often pictured as a vast white wasteland, scientists believe a thin layer of soot ” mostly invisible ” is causing it to absorb more heat. They want to find out if that's the main reason for the recent rapid warming of the Arctic, which could have a long-term impact on the world's climate. Soot, or black carbon, is produced by auto and truck engines, aircraft emissions, burning forests and the use of wood- or coal-burning stoves. "The Arctic serves as the air conditioner of the planet," explained Patricia Quinn of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, one of the research participants. At the same time, some of the incoming heat from the sun that tends to be absorbed in other locations is reflected by the ice and snow, allowing the polar regions to serve as cooling agents for the planet. But that may be changing. In recent years, the Arctic has been warming more rapidly than other regions and, Quinn pointed out, the "warming of the Arctic has implications not just for polar bears, but for the entire planet."
oilpan4 Champion Author Virginia Posts:12,041 Points:306,600 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Apr 20, 2011 8:36:54 PM Ignore oilpan4 Report Abuse I have worked with a lot of people who are from and have lived in alaska. Their number one complaint is that it is too cold there. So it sounds like good news for them. I ask what is so bad about AGW? The lame answer I get this week is the permafrost will melt and the beach will erode. That sounds like the ultimate dooms day scenario. Yeah if that happens we are all dead for sure. The only problem I for see with your latest cataclasmic forcast is thousands of years ago all of canada and a good portion of the lower 48 was solid permafrost, it thawed out and the world didn't end. Why is it so hard to believe that if some permafrost melts life will go on?
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Apr 19, 2011 9:44:49 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse joel plaskett put out a record called deny deny deny--should be theme song for some elsewhere on this boardlatest on climate change and coastal erosion
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 7, 2011 6:43:35 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse Throughout the Cdn arctic is experiencing unprecedented warmth, with permafrost melting, ice retreating, and all kinds of problems...all in the last 50 years as Johnny pointed out. Only a very tiny, but vocal, minority of scientists argue that man isn't responsible...alas boys the Titanic IS sinking...unfortunately a surprising number of people believe that minority even as the water begins lapping at the decks.
catspaw Champion Author Toronto Posts:29,929 Points:3,149,735 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: Jan 1, 2011 10:30:04 PM Ignore catspaw Report Abuse Almost the same story as the ones who say that it's all just solar cycles. If that was true, then we should be entering a period of cooling now if that was the case. And going back on the global temperatures for the past several decades, the solar cycle is NOT evident. For the the past decade, we've been setting record highs every year. It was 50 degrees here today. I haven't used a snow shovel since March 2008. This isn't a one-time high temperature, I've never seen such consistently warm winters my entire lifetime. Not just one or two days that are warm, but the entire winters.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Jan 1, 2011 8:46:05 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse according to the typical scientific evidence and record of millenia, the earth should be entering a cooling cycle, instead its getting warmer... the difference, massive human industrialization, massive human population, , massive human consumption of resources and production of thousands of new chemicals released into the environment...
catspaw Champion Author Toronto Posts:29,929 Points:3,149,735 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: Dec 31, 2010 10:04:41 AM Ignore catspaw Report Abuse Bill G., it’s true that there have been ice ages and warm periods in the past during Earth’s history that were obviously due to natural causes. Gouged mentioned a few of them, like continental drift, precession (the wobble of the Earth’s axis) and orbital cycles. There’s also volcanism (which contrary to what many think, is more likely to cause ice ages), changes in ocean currents (a slowing down of the N Atlantic gyro from many different causes could trigger an ice age) and asteroid impacts. One of interesting causes is thought to be the impact of the Indian subcontinent with the Asian landmass. This is what created the Himalayas, which in turn exposed more minerals that could absorb CO2. As you can see, there are many possible causes, not just one, so just because something like an ice age or a warming period happened in the past because of one reason, doesn’t preclude humans creating a similar effect from a different cause. Climate isn’t so simple that there’s only one possible cause for every effect and humans are creating dynamics that have never been possible before. Of course, then you went from asking a perfectly legitimate and respectful question, to the typical denier’s BS insults. If you want respect in future, then show some. Otherwise, if you carry on with the “Religion of Global Warming” crap, you’ll get the same lack of respect in return.
soberwizard Champion Author Tucson Posts:1,759 Points:380,730 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Oct 16, 2010 7:20:11 PM Ignore soberwizard Report Abuse Just look on the bright side...all them Texans can have the biggest state. Seriously, It's like the man said, science has found the evidence of the cycle that the Earth goes through in such matters. It's more a matter of when instead of if. And alot of these finds have us overdue. Case in point: The hotspot at Yellowstone. As well as our Alaska.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Jun 30, 2010 9:29:38 AM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse easily explained back in my high school.. shifting continental drift, changes to the earths axis, and orbital changes which occor on about a 12000yr cycle dont forget its a mere shift in the earths orbit that creates slightly differnet angles of solar light on the earths surface that gives us summer and winter. "The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for both the large-scale ice age periods and the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age. The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane. The specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from the Antarctic shelf over the past 650,000 years;[citation needed] changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth-Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes" C02 levels have risen and fallen with climate change, but this was natural and is not yet proven which one caused the other, but they do absolutely go hand in hand The new variable is that in the last couple hundred years, and especially in the last few decades man has greatly increased the presence of Co2 and other GG in the atmosphere.
Bill G. Champion Author Hartford Posts:37,151 Points:2,802,490 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: May 21, 2010 8:56:40 AM Ignore Bill G. Report Abuse My question is if Man is causing global warming, what caused the glaciers to melt, re-freeze, re-melt countless times over the eons? And who's to say Warmer might not be Better? Scientists say Mars is experiencing the exact rate of warming as is the Earth. So what is causing Mars's warming? There are so many holes in the Religion Of Global Warming it isn't even funny. But those who Believe turn a deaf ear to these problems with their theory.
t_flor Champion Author Illinois Posts:2,305 Points:958,140 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 21, 2010 7:18:59 AM Ignore t_flor Report Abuse Wouldn't it be that if emmissions block the sun wouldn't the temp of the earth cool? It seems to me no matter what we do the earth will heal itself.
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 19, 2010 9:07:27 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse the point is a mere 4 degree C global increase in temperature changed the world from an ice age to our current generally beneficial climate. In the past few decades only, during which time the world became massivlely industrialized, the temp has begun to rise, only very very slightly, but already we see thousands of years old permafrost melting, longer and more deadly droughts, massive flooding, all kinds of strange weather anomolies, includingmore frequent and more violent storms... all of which is predicted with warming which leads to changes in climate
Bill G. Champion Author Hartford Posts:37,151 Points:2,802,490 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: May 17, 2010 12:16:23 PM Ignore Bill G. Report Abuse And thousands of years ago the entire northern hemisphere was covered by huge glaciers. There were no "emissions" back then. What's your point?
gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 28, 2010 7:55:58 PM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse and parts of Alaska's coastline (and northern Canada's) are being eroded away as the protective ice is gone, and the permafrost melts to mud to be washed away by the waves, tides, and above all stronger storm surges.